The opposition National Democratic Congress flagbearer, former President John Dramani Mahama has taken a significant lead in the race for the Presidency to the December 7 polls over the ruling party’s candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
According to the Global InfoAnalystics latest poll results, the main opposition candidate, John Dramani Mahama surged ahead, commanding a substantial lead with 54.3% of the vote compared to the Vice President and the ruling party’s flagbearer support of 34.9%.
The poll also highlighted the presence of other candidates, including the founder of Movement for Change, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and leader of the New Force, Nana Kwame Bediako, who garnered 7.5% and 2.3%, respectively.
“A national opinion poll by Global InfoAnalytics for the 2024 presidential election shows the ruling party’s candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) trailing the main opposition candidate, John Dramani Mahama (JDM) in the race to lead the country in 2025.
“The poll shows JDM leads with 54.3%, DMB, 34.9%, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK), 7.5%, Nana Kwame Bediako, 2.3%, others, 1%”
Global InfoAnalytics January Poll Report
The poll result thus showed a clear shift in voter sentiment in favour of former President John Dramani Mahama, posing significant challenges for the ruling party’s candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
Regional Dynamics
Furthermore, the poll result revealed a fascinating twist at the regional level, as the National Democratic Congress flagbearer captured the lead in the North East region with a commanding 58%, while Dr Bawumia trailed significantly at 26%.
Conversely, in the Ashanti region, traditionally a stronghold for the ruling party, Vice President Dr Mahamudu managed to regain ground, leading with 54%, leaving Mr Mahama behind at 31%.
Again, despite Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s efforts to recover ground in the Central Region, where the party seek to secure victory, the poll indicates a challenging outlook for the ruling government with Mr Mahama securing 51% support against Dr Bawumia’s 41% support.
Interestingly, former President John Dramani Mahama extended his lead in other critical swing regions such as Greater Accra, and Western.
For instance, despite dropping support in the Central region, former President John Dramani maintained dominance in Greater Accra and the Western regions, commanding 66% support as against Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s support of 28% with Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako garnering 5% and 1% respectfully.
Voter Sentiment and Influences
Moreover, the polling data offered insights into voter sentiment and potential influences on electoral outcomes.
Among first-time voters, former President John Dramani Mahama led Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia by 52% to 33%, indicating a significant appeal to new voters while non-first-time voters also favoured Mr Mahama with 55% supporting him compared to Dr Bawumia’s 35% support.
When asked about the influence of campaign promises, respondents highlighted priorities such as the 24-hour Economy and Digitalization, with former President John Dramani Mahama’s 24-hour economy policy receiving 48% against Dr Bawumia’s digitization support of 29% respectively.
However, according to the poll result, a significant portion of the respondents, representing 17% expressed that slogans would not sway their vote.
Also, a significant portion of voters expressed support for former President John Dramani Mahama’s decision to retain Professor Jane Naana Opoku Agyemang as his running mate.
Challenges for Incumbent
More so, the poll result posed significant challenges for Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia with a majority of voters (60%) stating that he bears partial blame for the country’s economic crisis.
On the question of who is more trusted and competent among the leading candidates, the poll also showed that former President John Dramani Mahama is the most trusted and most competent with a score rate of 2.05 out of 3.0 while Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia comes second with a score of 1.89 and Alan Kyerematen with 1.72.
The poll also showed that only 60% of voters who voted for President Akufo-Addo in the 2020 elections intend to vote for Dr Bawumia while 19% intend to vote for former President John Dramani Mahama with 9% intending to vote for Alan Kyerematen and 2% intending to vote for the New Force leader.
However, 92% of voters who voted for former President John Dramani Mahama in the 2020 elections intend to vote for him again, while 3% intend to vote for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia with 2% and 1% intending to vote for Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako respectively.
Parliamentary Outlook
In parliamentary elections, the data suggested a potential shift in favour of the opposition National Democratic Congress.
For instance, while the ruling New Patriotic Party led in the 2020 elections, intentions for the upcoming 2024 parliamentary elections indicate a shift towards the National Democratic Congress with 48% of respondents expressing support for the opposition party’s candidates compared to 34% for NPP.
This suggest that the opposition National Democratic Congress is more than likely to form the majority in the next parliament.
According to the poll, the majority of voters rate their Members of Parliament’s performance as average 35% while 22% rate the performance of their Members of Parliament as very good or good, with 23% rating their performance as poor or very poor.
Again, per the poll result, only 11% of respondents rated their Members of Parliament as excellent while 10% expressed no opinion.
In addition, on whether voters believe the governing New Patriotic Party will break the eight (8), the poll showed that 55% of voters do not believe the NPP can break the eight, while 27% believe it can break the eight with 18% expressing no opinion.
Here, it was only the Eastern and Ashanti regions with a majority of 47% and 46% that expressed confidence that the ruling party would break the eight.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the latest polling data paints a picture of a competitive race, with former President John Dramani gaining momentum and Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia facing challenges in retaining support.
