Kamala Harris has a 55 per cent chance of winning the November presidential elections as of Monday (Aug 26), according to a new forecast model by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.
Harris’ rise in the poll numbers is in stark contrast to Donald Trump who had a 56 per cent chance of beating Joe Biden in the previous poll when the US president was still in the race.
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsinremian touch-and-go for both leaders but Harris has improved on Biden’s probabilities on each of these states. Michigan has moved from a toss-up to Lean Democratic while North Carolina has moved from Lean Republican to a toss-up.
Currently, Harris was on her way to securing 241 votes of the 538 available electoral votes while Trump was projected to finish with 291 votes. To secure the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes.
As for the Senate, the Republican still led with a 67 per cent chance of taking the majority, which was an 11 per cent fall from when Biden led the Democratic ticket.
“Control of the House is still a relative toss-up, with the GOP having a 56 per cent chance of winning control compared to their 61 per cent chance prior to Biden dropping off,” the poll report added.
Trump campaign worried
Even Trump’s pollsters have projected a similar picture, stating that they foresaw an extended honeymoon period for Harris.
“Post-DNC we will likely see another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls. Post-Convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions,” the memo by Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis – two of Trump’s pollsters stated.
“So don’t be surprised to see Harris get a temporary 2 to 3 point bump,” it added.
The pollsters urged the Trump supporters to keep their ‘eye on the ball’, referring to the states where the Republican leader had a greater chance of winning.
“The other thing to keep in mind is that while the media is going to focus on the national polls, we need to keep our eye on the ball – that is the polling in our target states. Our goal is to get to 270 votes and winning these states is how we do it.”
Despite being rather reluctant to talk on her policy issues since replacing Biden, Harris has steadily seen an uptick in her approval ratings. Harris’ approval rating has jumped from -14.6 to -2.4, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Recent YouGov polls showed that after Harris launched her run, about 90 per cent of Democrats consistently found her favourable.
Source: wionnews
